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乐观情绪引爆多头市场,英镑涨势喜人短期难言见顶

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年03月26日 12:41:21
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(  英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(继)(续)(飙)(涨)(,盘)(中)(继)(续)(刷)(新)(自)(英)(国)(宣)(布)(脱)(欧)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(,现)(报)(1.4370附)(近)(。CFTC持)(仓)(数)(据)(显)(示)(做)(多)(英)(镑)(意)(愿)(升)(温)(,稍)(后)(需)(关)(注)(北)(京)(时)(间)(16:30公)(布)(的)(英)(国)(失)(业)(率)(数)(据)(能)(否)(支)(撑)(其)(上)(涨)(,后)(市)(仍)(需)(警)(惕)(英)(镑)(单)(项)(走)(多)(的)(持)(续)(性)(以)(及)(明)(后)(两)(个)(交)(易)(日)(英)(国)(公)(布)(的)(数)(据)(对)(其)(影)(响)(。
  
  看)(涨)(英)(镑)(情)(绪)(升)(温)(
  目)(前)(押)(注)(英)(镑)(将)(上)(涨)(的)(交)(易)(者)(数)(量)(继)(续)(增)(长)(,最)(新)(的)(一)(系)(列)(数)(据)(显)(示)(市)(场)(上)(的)(杠)(杆)(基)(金)(看)(多)(英)(镑)(的)(意)(愿)(升)(至)(2014年)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(。
  同)(时)(,商)(品)(期)(货)(交)(易)(委)(员)(会)(的)(数)(据)(也)(显)(示)(市)(场)(已)(经)(连)(续)(第)(五)(周)(对)(英)(镑)(未)(来)(的)(走)(势)(持)(乐)(观)(态)(度)(。以)(美)(元)(名)(义)(计)(算)(,英)(镑)(净)(多)(头)(头)(寸)(已)(经)(攀)(升)(至)(多)(年)(来)(的)(新)(高)(,为)(3.8亿)(美)(元)(,高)(于)(前)(一)(周)(的)(3.5亿)(美)(元)(。
  通)(过)(对)(期)(权)(市)(场)(数)(据)(的)(分)(析)(,我)(们)(不)(难)(发)(现)(目)(前)(看)(多)(英)(镑)(的)(情)(绪)(依)(旧)(高)(涨)(,期)(权)(是)(金)(融)(产)(品)(,反)(应)(了)(人)(美)(们)(未)(来)(对)(于)(某)(一)(资)(产)(走)(势)(的)(预)(期)(,也)(是)(投)(机)(者)(套)(利)(的)(工)(具)(。
  对)(此)(,西)(太)(平)(洋)(银)(行)(分)(析)(师)(肖)(恩)(卡)(洛)(也)(表)(示)(:“芝)(加)(哥)(商)(业)(交)(易)(所)(杠)(杆)(化)(基)(金)(在)(美)(东)(收)(盘)(时)(段)(,英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(净)(多)(头)(增)(加)(至)(74.7万)(份)(合)(约)(为)(五)(周)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(,这)(是)(自)(2014年)(8月)(以)(来)(,市)(场)(最)(看)(好)(英)(镑)(的)(一)(次)(。这)(反)(应)(了)(市)(场)(的)(预)(期)(即)(英)(国)(能)(够)(顺)(利)(退)(欧)(,并)(且)(英)(国)(央)(行)(已)(经)(做)(好)(加)(息)(的)(准)(备)(。”
  (图)(为)(杠)(杆)(基)(金)(和)(资)(产)(管)(理)(机)(构)(对)(英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(合)(约)(的)(持)(仓)()
  从)(上)(图)(中)(我)(们)(不)(难)(发)(现)(资)(产)(管)(理)(机)(构)(的)(净)(空)(单)(量)(在)(减)(少)(,而)(杠)(杆)(基)(金)(则)(是)(明)(显)(反)(转)(从)(净)(空)(头)(持)(仓)(转)(为)(净)(多)(头)(且)(有)(持)(续)(加)(仓)(的)(意)(思)(。
  CFTC数)(据)(显)(示)(英)(镑)(继)(续)(走)(高)(
  CFTC数)(据)(公)(布)(后)(,欧)(元)(兑)(英)(镑)(创)(出)(10个)(月)(新)(低)(,目)(前)(报)(0.8636附)(近)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(持)(续)(走)(高)(,盘)(中)(已)(创)(出)(2018年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(高)(点)(1.4375远)(高)(于)(此)(前)(的)(1.4345。
  下)(图)(为)(今)(天)(英)(镑)(兑)(主)(要)(货)(币)(的)(走)(势)(,截)(至)(目)(前)(仍)(维)(持)(强)(势)(,全)(面)(上)(涨)(。
  后)(市)(仍)(需)(警)(惕)(风)(险)(
  尽)(管)(英)(镑)(涨)(势)(喜)(人)(,在)(本)(月)(初)(一)(位)(分)(析)(师)(在)(接)(受)(采)(访)(时)(警)(告)(称)(:“有)(太)(多)(的)(媒)(体)(宣)(传)(英)(镑)(在)(4月)(份)(看)(涨)(,虽)(然)(目)(前)(看)(起)(来)(情)(况)(确)(实)(不)(错)(,但)(是)(对)(这)(样)(的)(涨)(势)(是)(否)(仍)(能)(在)(下)(半)(年)(保)(持)(表)(示)(质)(疑)(。”
  瑞)(穗)(银)(行)((MizuhoBankLtd.)的)(分)(析)(师)(琼)(斯)(也)(表)(示)(,除)(了)(英)(国)(退)(欧)(前)(景)(以)(及)(对)(5月)(加)(息)(预)(期)(的)(考)(量)(,英)(镑)(在)(4月)(份)(看)(涨)(也)(是)(由)(于)(季)(节)(性)(因)(素)(和)(英)(国)(国)(内)(资)(金)(持)(续)(流)(入)(投)(资)(所)(导)(致)(的)(。但)(是)(他)(也)(表)(示)(后)(续)(资)(金)(的)(流)(入)(的)(持)(续)(性)(不)(强)(,这)(个)(因)(素)(可)(能)(是)(未)(来)(英)(镑)(走)(弱)(的)(理)(由)(。
  下)(图)(也)(可)(以)(帮)(助)(我)(们)(52周)(内)(主)(要)(货)(币)(净)(多)(头)(和)(空)(头)(头)(寸)(以)(及)(目)(前)(所)(处)(的)(位)(置)(:
  从)(上)(面)(我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,欧)(元)(和)(英)(镑)(的)(目)(前)(都)(处)(于)(净)(多)(头)(的)(最)(高)(位)(置)(,这)(可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(问)(题)(,处)(于)(历)(史)(高)(位)(的)(头)(寸)(的)(时)(候)(应)(该)(小)(心)(。
  在)(这)(种)(情)(况)(下)(市)(场)(的)(一)(些)(事)(件)(很)(可)(能)(会)(触)(发)(回)(调)(,需)(要)(警)(惕)(本)(周)(英)(国)(重)(要)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(,比)(如)(今)(天)(北)(京)(时)(间)(16:30公)(布)(的)(英)(国)(3月)(失)(业)(率)(,周)(三)((4月)(18日)()公)(布)(的)(英)(国)(CPI年)(率)(以)(及)(周)(四)((4月)(19日)()公)(布)(的)(3月)(季)(调)(后)(零)(售)(销)(售)(月)(率)(,投)(资)(者)(需)(要)(注)(意)(本)(周)(这)(三)(个)(交)(易)(日)(英)(镑)(在)(数)(据)(公)(布)(期)(间)(的)(反)(应)(。
  伦)(敦)(分)(析)(师)(基)(特)(·朱)(克)(斯)((KitJuckes)说)(:“市)(场)(对)(英)(镑)(目)(前)(处)(于)(狂)(热)(状)(态)(,英)(镑)(单)(向)(走)(多)(的)(态)(势)(正)(在)(变)(得)(越)(来)(越)(极)(端)(,但)(仍)(需)(警)(惕)(两)(个)(问)(题)(,一)(是)(英)(国)(经)(济)(仍)(然)(放)(缓)(,表)(现)(依)(然)(不)(佳)(;其)(次)(,CFTC数)(据)(显)(示)(,目)(前)(净)(多)(头)(处)(于)(历)(史)(高)(位)(,或)(许)(会)(出)(现)(巨)(大)(转)(机)(。”
  技)(术)(分)(析)(:
  目)(前)(英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(日)(线)(走)(势)(已)(经)(连)(续)(录)(得)(7连)(阳)(,也)(已)(经)(有)(效)(击)(穿)(了)(1.4345,2018年)(以)(来)(的)(最)(高)(位)(,目)(前)(报)(1.4360上)(方)(,尚)(不)(知)(北)(京)(时)(间)(16:30英)(国)(失)(业)(率)(数)(据)(对)(行)(情)(的)(影)(响)(。从)(技)(术)(上)(看)(,日)(线)(已)(涨)(破)(布)(林)(线)(上)(轨)(1.4330,4小)(时)(图)(也)(顶)(至)(布)(林)(线)(上)(轨)(1.4370。
  若)(后)(续)(数)(据)(显)(示)(英)(国)(经)(济)(向)(好)(,下)(一)(阻)(力)(位)(为)(1.4500整)(数)(关)(卡)(附)(近)(,该)(点)(位)(2016年)(1月)(下)(跌)(以)(来)(的)(高)(位)(区)(间)(的)(数)(整)(数)(关)(口)(阻)(力)(位)(。
  从)(形)(态)(上)(看)(,有)(效)(选)(择)(向)(上)(突)(破)(三)(角)(形)(收)(敛)(,就)(目)(前)(走)(势)(来)(看)(除)(非)(经)(济)(数)(据)(远)(差)(于)(预)(期)(可)(能)(会)(走)(如)(下)(图)(中)(箭)(头)(走)(势)(出)(现)(回)(调)(,否)(则)(料)(一)(骑)(绝)(尘)(,最)(近)(的)(压)(力)(位)(在)(1.4500附)(近)(,策)(略)(上)(坚)(持)(此)(前)(的)(逢)(低)(做)(多)(。
  (英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(日)(线)(图)()
  汇)(通)(财)(经)(易)(汇)(通)(行)(情)(软)(件)(显)(示)(,北)(京)(时)(间)(15:52,英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(报)(1.4367/69。
)


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