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任泽平:财税货币政策可以更积极——点评11月金融数据

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年03月26日 12:51:33
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(4、年)(内)(社)(融)(、货)(币)(供)(给)(增)(速)(下)(行)(压)(力)(仍)(较)(大)(,明)(年)(1季)(度)(社)(融)(增)(速)(可)(能)(迎)(来)(拐)(点)(。
受)(非)(标)(融)(资)(高)(基)(数)(及)(地)(方)(专)(项)(债)(余)(额)(限)(制)(,年)(内)(社)(融)(还)(存)(在)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,社)(融)(的)(同)(比)(回)(升)(可)(能)(要)(到)(明)(年)(1季)(度)(。去)(年)(考)(虑)(到)(资)(管)(新)(规)(即)(将)(出)(台)(银)(行)(抢)(表)(外)(融)(资)(,导)(致)(去)(年)(12月)(非)(标)(融)(资)(规)(模)(达)(到)(3523亿)(元)(,叠)(加)(年)(末)(非)(标)(集)(中)(到)(期)(,高)(基)(数)(之)(下)(社)(融)(可)(能)(还)(会)(下)(滑)(。另)(外)(9月)(纳)(入)(社)(融)(口)(径)(的)(地)(方)(专)(项)(债)(今)(年)(剩)(余)(余)(额)(不)(足)(2000亿)(元)(,难)(以)(大)(幅)(支)(撑)(社)(融)(,11月)(新)(增)(地)(方)(专)(项)(债)(净)(融)(资)(-332亿)(元)(,与)(8-10月)(形)(成)(鲜)(明)(对)(比)(。而)(到)(了)(明)(年)(1季)(度)(,非)(标)(基)(数)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(,2018年)(2、3月)(份)(分)(别)(为)(16亿)(和)(-2530亿)(,因)(此)(债)(券)(融)(资)(如)(果)(能)(够)(延)(续)(比)(较)(高)(的)(增)(长)(,社)(融)(增)(速)(有)(比)(较)(大)(的)(概)(率)(可)(以)(见)(底)(回)(升)(。但)(是)(预)(计)(未)(来)(非)(标)(很)(难)(回)(到)(之)(前)(高)(点)(。
年)(末)(财)(政)(支)(出)(空)(间)(压)(缩)(,货)(币)(供)(给)(压)(力)(较)(大)(。10月)(往)(往)(是)(税)(务)(收)(缴)(的)(高)(峰)(,而)(11、12月)(往)(往)(是)(财)(政)(支)(出)(的)(高)(峰)((分)(别)(对)(应)(财)(政)(性)(存)(款)(的)(环)(比)(增)(加)(与)(减)(少)()。特)(别)(是)(12月)(,大)(量)(财)(政)(存)(款)(集)(中)(投)(放)(会)(对)(M2规)(模)(形)(成)(一)(定)(的)(支)(撑)(。但)(今)(年)(的)(财)(政)(支)(出)(空)(间)(有)(限)(,对)(货)(币)(供)(给)(形)(成)(一)(定)(的)(压)(力)(。一)(方)(面)(,减)(税)(效)(果)(体)(现)(,10月)(财)(政)(收)(入)(同)(比)(增)(长)(-3.1%(前)(值)(2.0%),会)(制)(约)(到)(11、12月)(的)(财)(政)(支)(出)(规)(模)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,全)(年)(财)(政)(形)(势)(前)(高)(后)(低)(,公)(共)(财)(政)(支)(出)(11-12月)(大)(概)(仅)(有)(3.4万)(亿)(的)(支)(出)(空)(间)(,同)(比)(-14%;政)(府)(性)(基)(金)(支)(出)(大)(概)(还)(有)(2.2万)(亿)(空)(间)(,同)(比)(7.7%。
11月)(多)(项)(政)(策)(出)(台)(纾)(解)(民)(企)(融)(资)(难)(题)(,从)(工)(具)(上)(、监)(管)(上)(给)(予)(支)(持)(。明)(确)(在)(对)(商)(业)(银)(行)(的)(MPA考)(核)(中)(增)(加)(对)(小)(微)(企)(业)(融)(资)(的)(评)(估)(指)(标)(。不)(得)(盲)(目)(抽)(贷)(、停)(贷)(,缓)(解)(民)(企)(流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(。未)(来)(民)(企)(在)(贷)(款)(的)(可)(得)(性)(上)(将)(会)(提)(高)(,有)(利)(于)(改)(善)(目)(前)(以)(居)(民)(贷)(款)(为)(主)(的)(贷)(款)(结)(构)(。但)(是)(考)(虑)(到)(民)(企)(融)(资)(难)(很)(大)(原)(因)(在)(于)(经)(济)(下)(行)(导)(致)(的)(预)(期)(不)(稳)(定)(和)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(下)(降)(,短)(期)(预)(期)(和)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(难)(以)(大)(幅)(改)(善)(,会)(约)(束)(银)(行)(对)(民)(企)(的)(融)(资)(规)(模)(。
5、针)(对)(目)(前)(经)(济)(金)(融)(形)(势)(,需)(要)(“几)(家)(抬)(”做)(好)(政)(策)(协)(同)(。逆)(周)(期)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(和)(财)(政)(政)(策)(可)(以)(更)(积)(极)(,未)(来)(降)(准)(、减)(税)(可)(期)(。
不)(要)(把)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(和)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(对)(立)(起)(来)(。改)(革)(是)(管)(长)(期)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,宏)(观)(调)(控)(就)(管)(短)(期)(经)(济)(波)(动)(。长)(期)(的)(改)(革)(也)(需)(要)(一)(个)(稳)(定)(的)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(。
建)(议)(2019年)(应)(不)(少)(于)(4次)(降)(准)(。首)(先)(,未)(来)(央)(行)(为)(了)(稳)(定)(经)(济)(增)(长)(和)(金)(融)(市)(场)(,需)(要)(适)(当)(放)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,央)(行)(可)(以)(适)(当)(降)(准)(释)(放)(长)(期)(无)(成)(本)(资)(金)(。其)(次)(,目)(前)(中)(国)(大)(型)(存)(款)(类)(金)(融)(机)(构)(存)(准)(率)(依)(然)(高)(达)(14.50%,中)(小)(型)(存)(款)(类)(金)(融)(机)(构)(存)(准)(率)(高)(达)(12.50%,存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(有)(较)(大)(下)(调)(空)(间)(。
利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(下)(,建)(议)(2019年)(通)(过)(下)(调)(政)(策)(利)(率)((OMO、MLF利)(率)()的)(方)(式)(降)(息)(,而)(不)(是)(调)(整)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(。首)(先)(,由)(于)(货)(币)(市)(场)(中)(性)(利)(率)(已)(接)(近)(跌)(破)(政)(策)(利)(率)(水)(平)(,在)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(不)(畅)(通)(,利)(率)(传)(导)(不)(通)(畅)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,继)(续)(进)(行)(数)(量)(型)(MLF操)(作)(的)(边)(际)(效)(果)(有)(限)(。其)(次)(,随)(着)(国)(内)(基)(本)(面)(需)(求)(端)(转)(弱)(,7天)(OMO(现)(为)(2.55%)与)(1年)(期)(MLF(现)(为)(3.3%)操)(作)(利)(率)(一)(起)(下)(调)(的)(可)(能)(性)(较)(大)(,较)(历)(史)(低)(点)(均)(存)(在)(30bp的)(灵)(活)(调)(整)(空)(间)(。最)(后)(,目)(前)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(以)(数)(量)(型)(隐)(形)(管)(制)(为)(主)(,现)(阶)(段)(呈)(现)(出)(与)(M2脱)(钩)(、调)(控)(节)(奏)(放)(缓)(、官)(方)(淡)(化)(其)(地)(位)(等)(特)(点)(,且)(民)(营)(企)(业)(融)(资)(难)(关)(键)(在)(于)(银)(行)(惜)(贷)(,存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(的)(调)(整)(空)(间)(与)(调)(整)(可)(能)(性)(均)(待)(观)(察)(。
建)(议)(金)(融)(监)(管)(政)(策)(从)(“一)(刀)(切)(”到)(结)(构)(性)(宽)(信)(用)(,支)(持)(实)(体)(经)(济)(发)(债)(、地)(方)(基)(建)(、刚)(需)(和)(改)(善)(型)(购)(房)(需)(求)(、激)(活)(股)(票)(市)(场)(等)(。首)(先)(,非)(标)(融)(资)(虽)(然)(增)(加)(了)(融)(资)(链)(条)(,但)(客)(观)(上)(缓)(解)(了)(民)(企)(融)(资)(压)(力)(。对)(影)(子)(银)(行)(的)(监)(管)(需)(要)(避)(免)(“一)(刀)(切)(”。其)(次)(,中)(国)(是)(以)(间)(接)(融)(资)(为)(主)(的)(国)(家)(,未)(来)(缓)(解)(民)(企)(融)(资)(压)(力)(还)(得)(依)(靠)(宽)(信)(用)(政)(策)(。监)(管)(政)(策)(积)(极)(配)(合)(,做)(好)(“宽)(货)(币)(”向)(“宽)(信)(用)(”的)(传)(递)(。最)(后)(,规)(范)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(。鼓)(励)(企)(业)(通)(过)(标)(准)(化)(产)(品)(债)(券)(来)(进)(行)(融)(资)(,积)(极)(推)(进)(科)(创)(板)(增)(加)(企)(业)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(,面)(对)(地)(方)(政)(府)(基)(建)(融)(资)(需)(求)(“开)(正)(门)(,堵)(偏)(门)(”。
建)(议)(2019年)(财)(政)(政)(策)(更)(加)(积)(极)(有)(效)(,平)(衡)(财)(政)(转)(向)(功)(能)(财)(政)(,建)(议)(上)(调)(赤)(字)(率)(和)(专)(项)(债)(发)(行)(规)(模)(,支)(持)(减)(税)(和)(基)(建)(。首)(先)(,财)(政)(理)(念)(上)(从)(平)(衡)(财)(政)(转)(向)(功)(能)(财)(政)(,在)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(下)(行)(及)(企)(业)(负)(担)(较)(重)(时)(期)(,发)(挥)(逆)(周)(期)(调)(节)(作)(用)(,扩)(大)(总)(需)(求)(。其)(次)(,推)(进)(大)(力)(度)(、实)(质)(性)(减)(税)(。从)(减)(税)(方)(式)(上)(,从)(缩)(减)(税)(基)(式)(减)(税)(转)(向)(降)(低)(税)(率)(的)(减)(税)(,从)(碎)(片)(化)(减)(税)(转)(向)(一)(揽)(子)(推)(出)(的)(减)(税)(,从)(政)(策)(式)(减)(税)(转)(向)(改)(革)(式)(减)(税)(,从)(特)(定)(行)(业)(、特)(定)(主)(体)(的)(特)(惠)(式)(减)(税)(转)(向)(普)(惠)(式)(减)(税)(;从)(减)(税)(税)(种)(上)(,尤)(其)(是)(降)(低)(企)(业)(所)(得)(税)(税)(率)((如)(从)(25%降)(至)(21%)和)(增)(值)(税)(税)(率)((以)(增)(值)(税)(税)(率)(简)(并)(为)(契)(机)(将)(制)(造)(业)(税)(率)(16%分)(阶)(段)(降)(至)(10%),提)(高)(减)(税)(后)(企)(业)(和)(居)(民)(的)(获)(得)(感)(;从)(减)(税)(目)(标)(上)(,更)(加)(聚)(焦)(于)(稳)(定)(社)(会)(预)(期)(。再)(次)(,削)(减)(民)(生)(社)(保)(之)(外)(的)(开)(支)(,优)(化)(支)(出)(结)(构)(,提)(高)(财)(政)(支)(出)(效)(率)(。最)(后)(,上)(调)(赤)(字)(率)(至)(3%-3.5%,增)(加)(专)(项)(债)(发)(行)(至)(2万)(亿)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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